The 2021-2029 Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) shocked member cities by requiring 1.3 million new housing units to be built by 2029 in the six-county region covered by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG). 

The CA Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) calculates the RHNA and hands it off to the various government associations in California. Our area is covered by SCAG, which divides the number of housing units required between the area’s counties and cities with input from member cities. 

 SCAG’s RHNA Appeal Board heard objections from Fullerton and forty-three other cities on January 19, 2021, but HCD denied all except two appeals. After SCAG voted not to litigate, the Orange County Council of Governments, which is independent of SCAG, sued, alleging that HCD failed to use the appropriate population forecast, failed to evaluate household overcrowding and cost burden rates appropriately, and used unreasonable vacancy rates. The CA Supreme Court dismissed the case in November 2021, and the ruling was confirmed on July 27, 2023, by the Fourth District Court of Appeals.

A 2022 CA State Audit found errors in the HCD Assessment Needs data, which undercut the number of units required for the three areas audited (Sacramento Area Council of Governments, Santa Barbara County Association of Governments, and Amador County) and may signal errors elsewhere. The audit did not include Orange County due to the ongoing litigation against HCD. Data collected included census, finance, and reports from cities, counties, and regions. 

Read the entire report at https://www.auditor.ca.gov/pdfs/reports/2021-125.pdf

Membership on SCAG’s 86-member governing board is comprised of local elected officials representing the six counties and 191 cities within the SCAG jurisdiction, including elected representatives from 67 Districts, each consisting of one or more cities in the region with approximately equal population and geographic continuity; an elected representative from each of the six counties within the region; and representatives of the County Transportation Commissions and tribal governments located within the region.

1,341,827 Housing Allocations for the SCAG area

The state allocated a total of 1,341,827 new housing units to be built between the years 2021 to 2029 between counties in the SCAG area: LA 812,060; Orange 183,861; Riverside 167,351; San Bernardino 138,110; Ventura 24,452; and Imperial 15,993.

Orange County Housing Allocations:

• Irvine 23,610 (6,396 very-low, 4,235 low, 4,308 moderate, 8,671 above moderate)
• Garden Grove 19,168 (4,166 very-low, 2,801 low, 3,211 moderate, 8,990 above moderate)
• Anaheim 17,453 (3,767 very-low, 2,397 low, 2,945 moderate, 8,344 above moderate)
• Huntington Beach 13,368 (3,661 very-low, 2,184 low, 2,308 moderate, 5,215 above moderate)
• Fullerton 13,209 (3,198 very-low, 1,989 low, 2,271 moderate, 5,751 above moderate)
• Costa Mesa 11,760 (2,919 very-low, 1,794 low, 2,088 moderate, 4,959 above moderate)
• Unincorporated OC 10,406 (3,139 very-low, 1,866 low, 2,040 moderate, 3,361 above moderate)
• Westminster 9,759 (1,881 very-low, 1,473 low, 1,784 moderate, 4,621 above moderate)
• Buena Park 8,919 (2,119 very-low, 1,343 low, 1,573 moderate, 3,884 above moderate)
• Tustin 6,782 (1,724 very-low, 1,046 low, 1,132 moderate, 2,880 above moderate)
• Newport Beach 4,845 (1,456 very-low, 930 low, 1,050 moderate, 1,409 above moderate)
• Placentia 4,374 (1,231 very-low, 680 low, 770 moderate, 1,693 above moderate)
• Fountain Valley 4,839 (1,307 very-low, 786 low, 834 moderate, 1,912 above moderate)
• Orange 3,936 (1,067 very-low, 604 low, 677 moderate, 1,588 above moderate)
• Cypress 3,936 (1,150 very-low, 657 low, 623 moderate, 1,506 above moderate)
• Lake Forest 3,236 (956 very-low, 543 low, 559 moderate, 1,178 above moderate)
• Santa Ana 3,095 (586 very-low, 362 low, 523 moderate, 1,624 above moderate)
• Yorba Linda 2,415 (765 very-low, 451 low, 457 moderate, 742 above moderate)
• Brea 2,365 (669 very-low, 393 low, 403 moderate, 900 above moderate)
• Mission Viejo 2,217 (674 very-low, 401 low, 397 moderate, 745 above moderate)
• All others are less than 2000 each

HCD, in its RNHA assessments, must consider

• Anticipated Population Growth 
• Projection of future population growth in the region. 
• Household Formation Rate 
• The rate at which individuals form new households in the region. 
• Household Size 
• The number of people per household in the region. 
• Vacancy Rates 
• The percentage of homes available for rent or sale compared to the total number of housing units, less vacation, and seasonal homes. 
• Overcrowding 
• The percentage of households that have more than one resident per room in a housing unit. 
• Replacement Needs 
• Replacement of housing units lost during the planning period, such as because of deterioration. 
• Cost‐Burdened Households 
• The percentage of households that are paying more than 30 percent of their income on housing costs. 
• Units Lost to Emergencies 
• The loss of housing units during a state of emergency declared by the Governor, such as in wildfires, if the lost units have not yet been rebuilt or replaced. 
• Jobs/Housing Balance 
• The relationship between the number of jobs in a region and the number of housing units in that same region. 
• Other Characteristics 
• Other characteristics of the composition of the projected population. 

State law also requires HCD to adjust its needs assessments to account for long‐term housing challenges, such as overcrowding, which occurs when a housing unit has more than one resident per room. The Legislature added this overcrowding factor to the needs assessment process in 2017. HCD must also consider cost‐burdened households, which are households that pay more than 30 percent of their income for housing costs. When it determines it is appropriate to do so, HCD includes adjustments for cost burden and overcrowding in its assessments. Among the sources HCD uses to determine these adjustments is data that state law requires councils of governments to provide. The councils provide data comparing the cost burden and overcrowding for their respective regions with that of other comparable regions in the United States. HCD then uses this information to calculate adjustments for each council of governments’ needs assessment. 

Finally, state law requires HCD to consider housing units that communities will need to plan to replace. Some housing units become uninhabitable during the future period covered by the assessments, such as housing lost due to damage, deterioration, and house or apartment building fires.