The California Secretary of State will officially certify the March 5, 2024 Election Results on April 12, 2024. Most races have been decided, but ballots are still being counted, and a few remain too close to call, including the Bay Area’s 16th Congressional District race. Democrat Sam Liccardo has secured the top spot, but only FOUR votes separate #2 Joe Simitian (D) and #3 Evan Low (D) from advancing to November.

Orange County’s 45th Congressional District race came down to the wire. Again, the top vote-getter was clear – Michelle Steel got 55% of the vote in a district where there are more registered Democrats than Republican voters. Determining who will face incumbent Steel in November has taken weeks of ballot counting. It was an incredibly close race, with less than 400 votes separately separating third-place Kim Nguyen Penaloza (D) and second-place Derek Tran (D). Nguyen Penaloza conceded graciously, and Tran will advance to November to challenge Steel for the seat (and possibly determine control of the House of Representatives).

Low Voter Turnout

We know that Voter Turnout for the March 2024 election is low. Currently, statewide voter turnout is 35%, making it one of the lowest turnouts in a presidential primary election. Though many expected the competitive United States Senate race to motivate voters to return their ballots even though the presidential race was over before it really started, only 1/3 of the ballots mailed to registered voters were returned.

Source: Voter Turnout | 2024 Presidential Primary | California Secretary of State

Voter turnout in 2008 was incredibly high, with 58% of registered voters casting a ballot. Two factors contributed to that high turnout: there were competitive primaries for both political parties choosing their presidential nominees, and California moved up the election to February 5th so our state could have a say in that decision. However, it was also an anomaly as we had two primary elections that year. Only the presidential races and a few ballot measures were on that February ballot. The rest of the primary races and county offices were on the June primary ballot, which had much lower voter turnout as a result, with only 28% of registered voters casting ballots. Thus, it ended our state’s experiment with splitting the primary elections.

Who Voted?

72% of all ballots cast in the state of California and the County of Orange were from voters 50 years old and older, though they make up half of registered voters. 18-34-year-olds account for roughly 25% of all registered voters but were responsible for only 1 out of every 10 ballots cast this election. We need to improve civic education to engage and inform young voters to participate in elections.

Proposition 1: Passed (barely)

A ballot measure backed by the Governor with no opposition passing isn’t surprising. That it’s this close is a big surprise.

After all, 72% supported the measure in a December 2023 poll (Politico/Morning Report), so most assumed it would pass easily.

According to Ballotpedia, the opposition spent nothing, while the supporters spent almost $14 Million, along with the Governor campaigning for it.

Two weeks after the election, this remained one of the closest statewide ballot measures we’ve seen, passing with only 50.2% of the vote.

United States Senate Full Term and Partial Term

• Adam Schiff (D)
• Steve Garvey (R)

The Governor’s appointment to the United States Senate seat, LaphonzaButler’s term will expire with the November 5th election, so the voters have to choose someone to fill the remainder of the term until January when the 119th Congress will be sworn in with the winners of the November election. 

Orange County House Districts – * denotes an incumbent

California’s 38th Congressional District

• Linda Sanchez (D)*
• Eric Ching (R)

California’s 40th Congressional District

• Young Kim (R)*
• Joe Kerr (D)

California’s 45th Congressional District

• Michelle Steel (R)*
• Derek Tran (D)

California’s 46th Congressional District

• Lou Correa (D)*
• David Pan (R)

California’s 47th Congressional District

• Dave Min (D)
• Scott Baugh (R)

California’s 49th Congressional District

• Mike Levin (D)*
• Matt Gunderson (R)

California State Senate * denotes an incumbent

California’s 37th Senatorial District

• Josh Newman (D)*
• Steve Choi (R)

California Assembly * denotes an incumbent

California’s 59th State Assembly District

• Philip Chen (R)*
• Dave Obrand (D)

California’s 64th State Assembly district

• Blanca Pacheco (D)*
• Raul Ortiz, Jr. (R)

California’s 67th State Assembly district

• Sharon Quirk-Silva (D)*
• Beth Culver (R)

California’s 68th State Assembly district

• Avelino Valencia (D)*
• Mike Tardif (R)

California’s 70th State Assembly district

• Tri Ta (R)*
• Jimmy Phan (D)

California’s 71st State Assembly district

• Kate Sanchez (R)*
• Gary Kephart (D)

California’s 72nd State Assembly district

• Diane Dixon (R)*
• Dom Jones (D)

California’s 73rd State Assembly district

• Cottie Petrie-Norris (D)*
• Scotty Peotter (R)

California’s 74th State Assembly district

• Laurie Davies (R)*
• Chris Duncan (D)

Not all races on the ballot are primaries determining who will advance to the November General Election ballot. The races for Orange County Board of Supervisors and the Superior Court Judges are decided on the primary ballot if one candidate gets more than 50% of the votes. If no one gets a majority, there’s a runoff election in November between the top two candidates. The Orange County Board of Education Trustees are decided with a plurality of the votes on this ballot, regardless if a candidate receives over 50% of the votes. 

Orange County Board of Supervisors

Incumbent Supervisor Dan Wagner won re-election with 64% of the vote, defeating Farrah Khan. In District 1, Janet Nguyen and Frances Marquez will face off in the runoff election on the November ballot. 

Orange County Superior Court Judges

Orange County voters tend to vote for judicial candidates with the “OC Deputy District Attorney” ballot designation, so it was no surprise when all three candidates with that job title won their elections. 

• Jason Baez
• Richard Zimmer
• Whitney Bokosky

Orange County Board of Education

The incumbents in the Board of Education races succeeded in their re-election campaigns.

• Area 1: Jorge Valdes
• Area 3: Kenneth Williams
• Area 4: Tim Shaw

Orange Unified School District Recall

Both trustees facing a recall in the Orange Unified School District were recalled from office with 53% of the vote. Once the OC Registrar of Voters certifies the election, they will be removed from office. The remaining OUSD Trustees will either hold a special election or appoint a replacement for each of those district areas. 

• Area 4: Madison Miner
• Area 7: Rick Ledesma