The war we all saw coming has arrived. A week ago, I predicted it would launch last Tuesday and be announced in the State of the Union. I was off by three days. It has been clear that this was coming. All the signs were present for all to see. We were sending ships, hell, fleets and armadas to the region. Iran closed its airspace last week and also, if only briefly, the Straits of Hormuz. We announced that the families of diplomatic personnel in Lebanon and Israel were free to leave. Finally, our Israeli Ambassador told people to get out. Then the airspace closed.

All the while, Trump pretended that war was avoidable and that while he preferred diplomacy, he was ready to fight. Trump pretended to negotiate when he actually believed that there was no diplomatic solution. So, as there were further talks scheduled when Trump launched an attack on Iran on June 22, 2025, he launched last night (PST) with more talks scheduled.

The United States and Israel launched in daylight hours, which is unusual. Normally, there is less anti-aircraft fire and more terror with night attacks. We chose daytime because the first strikes, led by Israel, were to take out (Kill) Iran’s leaders—both religious and secular. We believed they would be gathered in several vulnerable working groups. We don’t know the result yet. Iran says they survived, but Iran is not credible. We say that we don’t know, which I think is true.

Was Trump pretending to negotiate in bad faith or smart? Well, the tactic is smart. However, the war is not so smart. The “Peace President,” lusting for the Nobel Peace Prize and still drunk on the easy success of the Venezuelan operation, jumped into the already roiled waters of the Middle East.

How will it end? “Ay, there’s the rub.” No one knows. No one ever knows the outcome of just about any war (Save our invasion of Grenada). However intelligently or cunningly we might plan, and whatever assurances the generals might give, the battleplan disappears after the first shot. Generals give leaders bad information, information aimed to please rather than to inform.

Please note Putin’s planned two-week invasion of Ukraine, now in its 5thyear. Or take our rapid invasion of Iraq that fell apart in 8 years of fighting, or how our quick conquest of Afghanistan deteriorated into failure, chaos and tragedy over a 20-year period.

We are already facing a very large miscalculation, though it may end up in our favor. Trump and Vance have promised no long wars and no boots on the ground. They promised not really a war but a kind of Putinesque “Special Operation—in and out as in Venezuela. Trump believed that this would be a simple and limited joint operation with Israel and would not become a wider war.

Wrong! It is already a regional war expanding in less than 24 hours all over the Middle East. We knew Iran would try to retaliate against Israel and had our anti-missile defenses deployed. We thought that Iran would attack some American targets in the region—bases in Iraq and our naval base in Bahrain. We were right. They did. But then they surprised us and struck Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain.

This was, on Iran’s part, a terrible miscalculation. The Arab world was divided and not committed to either the US or Iran. Now, after being attacked, they will move towards neutrality or outright support. Iran’s ill-advised violence may indicate that, indeed, its professional military and political leadership might have been diminished or even destroyed.

Yes, we have indeed “Let slip the dogs of war.” Now will we cry? I am already crying. I’m crying, “Why?”  Are we fighting because Iran is an immediate existential threat? No one believes the immediacy of the threat, though the threat is real. Are we fighting as a distraction for Trump to change the focus from Epstein? A possibility. Is Netanyahu egging us on as a distraction from his legal and political problems? Almost certainly.

Whatever Trump’s or Netanyahu’s motives, we are at war. We launched this war without congressional approval (pretty normal). Worse, we launched without bringing the American people on board and giving them an understanding of the threat, our goals or the anticipated costs in lives, treasure and reputation. Maybe Trump’s calculation is that you can’t lose public support if you never sought it. Not, in my view, smart.

So, where to now? We don’t know. A quick in and out or a slog? We don’t know. What we do know is that once we let slip the Dogs of War, they won’t easily return to their kennels and when they do, they will be forever changed by the blood they drew and the blood they shed.